1% chase the knife
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.41
2.22 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.49%
EV $1.25 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
48.38%
369 openings, odds method
Variance
76.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 369 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 384 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $123 194 HUNT_COIN | 99.0% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.0% | 382 | 380.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$123194 HUNT_COIN87.60x
★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$123194 HUNT_COIN87.60x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeMomaaa @bandit$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.412.22 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.41 | 88.49% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%Consumer Grade 99.0%best hit $123 (87.60x)