Green Problem

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.19

11.33 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.48%

EV $6.22 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.23%

897 openings, odds method

Variance

24.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

85.20%±37.38684 openings

30 days

87.23%±32.64897 openings

since tracking started

87.23%±32.64897 openings

-0.5%111.0%222.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	3.31%±218.6	—	odds
7d	684	85.20%±37.4	−0.1σ	odds
30d	897	87.23%±32.6	+0.0σ	odds
All	897	87.23%±32.6	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 897 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$608 958 HUNT_COIN	4.9%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$526 829 HUNT_COIN	8.5%	3	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$453 713 HUNT_COIN	10.9%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$305 481 HUNT_COIN	22.1%	5	4.0	1.24×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$79.17 125 HUNT_COIN	9.5%	4	6.7	0.59×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 80	$53.89 84.88 HUNT_COIN	10.8%	6	11.2	0.54×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$43.86 69.08 HUNT_COIN	10.6%	15	13.5	1.11×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$21.80 34.34 HUNT_COIN	8.8%	17	22.4	0.76×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$19.51 30.73 HUNT_COIN	10.2%	33	29.2	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$0.33 0.52 HUNT_COIN	1.6%	264	269.1	0.98×
Sticker \| Green's Problemsticker · Rare	60.0%	$0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN	2.1%	550	538.2	1.02×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$7.1911.33 HUNT_COIN$526829 HUNT_COIN73.17x2d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFredi.03$7.1911.33 HUNT_COIN$526829 HUNT_COIN73.17x2d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restrictedApumatic$7.1911.33 HUNT_COIN$526829 HUNT_COIN73.17x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare$7.1911.33 HUNT_COIN$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN0.03x2h

Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · RareMarius Tutunaru$7.1911.33 HUNT_COIN$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN0.03x2h

Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare$7.1911.33 HUNT_COIN$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN0.03x2h

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedLeva_alt2$7.1911.33 HUNT_COIN$0.330.52 HUNT_COIN0.05x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.19	86.48%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%restricted 33.5%covert 0.5%mil spec 2.8%classified 3.3%Rare 60.0%best hit $526 (73.17x)