High Ping

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.69

26.28 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.48%

EV $14.43 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.24%

217 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

50.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

74.90%±11.50134 openings

30 days

76.24%±9.04217 openings

since tracking started

76.24%±9.04217 openings

15.5%54.8%94.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (67.21% – 85.28%, 217 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	54.77%±38.4	—	odds
7d	134	74.90%±11.5	−2.0σ	odds
30d	217	76.24%±9.04	−2.2σ	odds
All	217	76.24%±9.04	−2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 217 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	12.5%	$30.83 48.56 HUNT_COIN	26.7%	21	27.1	0.77×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.5%	$30.57 48.14 HUNT_COIN	26.5%	23	27.1	0.85×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.5%	$19.35 30.47 HUNT_COIN	16.8%	21	27.1	0.77×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	12.5%	$18.41 28.99 HUNT_COIN	15.9%	28	27.1	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.5%	$6.92 10.9 HUNT_COIN	6.0%	29	27.1	1.07×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.5%	$6.62 10.42 HUNT_COIN	5.7%	30	27.1	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	12.5%	$1.39 2.19 HUNT_COIN	1.2%	24	27.1	0.88×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon	12.5%	$1.37 2.15 HUNT_COIN	1.2%	41	27.1	1.51×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon$16.6926.28 HUNT_COIN$1.372.15 HUNT_COIN0.08x11h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare$16.6926.28 HUNT_COIN$30.8348.56 HUNT_COIN1.85x11h

Souvenir M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · UncommonHulk$16.6926.28 HUNT_COIN$1.372.15 HUNT_COIN0.08x11h

StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$16.6926.28 HUNT_COIN$6.9210.9 HUNT_COIN0.41x11h

Souvenir M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon$16.6926.28 HUNT_COIN$1.372.15 HUNT_COIN0.08x11h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.6926.28 HUNT_COIN$19.3530.47 HUNT_COIN1.16x11h

StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.6926.28 HUNT_COIN$6.6210.42 HUNT_COIN0.40x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$16.69	86.48%	8

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 12.5%classified 25.0%restricted 25.0%covert 12.5%#8847ff 12.5%Uncommon 12.5%best hit —