Legends Never Die
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$354.91
559 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $307.00 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.97%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $5,693 8,966 HUNT_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 118 | $5,401 8,507 HUNT_COIN | 15.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 80 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT_COIN | 19.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $2,708 4,266 HUNT_COIN | 13.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 36 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.27× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 31 | $1,219 1,921 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified | 90.0% | $60.29 94.95 HUNT_COIN | 17.7% | 43 | 43.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertdwiauhdas$355559 HUNT_COIN$2,7084,266 HUNT_COIN7.63x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertdwiauhdas$355559 HUNT_COIN$2,7084,266 HUNT_COIN7.63x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $355 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.8%contraband 1.3%restricted 2.8%classified 93.3%best hit $4,721 (13.30x)