Lockdown
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$180.88
285 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $156.46 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.17%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$181285 HUNT_COIN$14.8623.41 HUNT_COIN0.08x
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil specfine shi$181285 HUNT_COIN$222350 HUNT_COIN1.23x
Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$181285 HUNT_COIN$14.8623.41 HUNT_COIN0.08x
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$181285 HUNT_COIN$361569 HUNT_COIN2.00x
★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife$181285 HUNT_COIN$347546 HUNT_COIN1.92x
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedfine shi$181285 HUNT_COIN$95.14150 HUNT_COIN0.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $181 | 86.50% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%gold 0.1%covert 1.1%extraordinary 4.3%legendary 5.0%Classified 5.0%covert knife 5.0%mil spec 37.0%restricted 27.5%Industrial Grade 15.0%best hit —