Major
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$92.80
146 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $80.27 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.61%
90 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 90 openings and 9.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $610 960 HUNT_COIN | 38.0% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.56× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $569 896 HUNT_COIN | 35.4% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $410 645 HUNT_COIN | 25.5% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| Sticker | Dust FA (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 15.0% | $4.73 7.45 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | Inferno Diorama (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 15.0% | $0.48 0.76 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | Pain Train (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 15.0% | $0.27 0.43 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | Overpass Diorama (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 15.0% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 17 | 13.5 | 1.26× |
| Sticker | TV On Miragesticker · high | 25.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertHobbi3ten$92.80146 HUNT_COIN$569896 HUNT_COIN6.13x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertHobbi3ten$92.80146 HUNT_COIN$569896 HUNT_COIN6.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $92.80 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.0%covert 5.0%Classified 5.0%Legendary 45.0%Mythical 15.0%high 25.0%best hit $610 (6.57x)