Lurker
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.92
9.32 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.44%
EV $5.12 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.06%
477 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 477 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $12.51 19.71 HUNT_COIN | 12.2% | 13 | 23.9 | 0.55× |
| AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $11.32 17.83 HUNT_COIN | 11.1% | 24 | 23.9 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 13 | $10.43 16.42 HUNT_COIN | 15.3% | 42 | 35.8 | 1.17× |
| AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 13 | $8.33 13.12 HUNT_COIN | 12.2% | 37 | 35.8 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 12.5% | $7.47 11.77 HUNT_COIN | 18.3% | 75 | 59.6 | 1.26× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 12.5% | $6.97 10.97 HUNT_COIN | 17.0% | 62 | 59.6 | 1.04× |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $4.76 7.5 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 61 | 59.6 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Sneaky Beaky Likesticker · Rare | 37.5% | $0.31 0.49 HUNT_COIN | 2.3% | 163 | 178.9 | 0.91× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.929.32 HUNT_COIN$10.4316.42 HUNT_COIN1.76x
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkMarius Tutunaru$5.929.32 HUNT_COIN$8.3313.12 HUNT_COIN1.41x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.929.32 HUNT_COIN$10.4316.42 HUNT_COIN1.76x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.44%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.92 | 86.44% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 17.5%Legendary 17.5%Classified 7.5%pink 7.5%covert 12.5%Rare 37.5%best hit —