Low HP Legend
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.83
7.61 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.45%
EV $4.18 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.15%
549 openings, odds method
Variance
102.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 286
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 549 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 549 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 5,000 | $1,509 2,377 HUNT_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $857 1,351 HUNT_COIN | 10.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $601 947 HUNT_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 667 | $519 818 HUNT_COIN | 18.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 667 | $444 700 HUNT_COIN | 16.0% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 23.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× |
| Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff | 99.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN | 2.7% | 542 | 543.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.45%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.83 | 86.45% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%covert 0.3%mil spec 0.7%#4b69ff 99.0%best hit $519 (107.5x)