1% chase the rainbow

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.92

3.02 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.69%

EV $1.70 from 5 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.78%

696 openings, odds method

Variance

90.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

510 openings · below min

30 days

696 openings · below min

since tracking started

696 openings · below min

0.5%90.8%181.0%

Small sample. 696 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	510	97.72%±82.6	—	odds
30d	696	71.78%±70.7	—	odds
All	696	71.78%±70.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 711 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$368 580 HUNT_COIN	21.6%	0	0.7	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 667	$193 304 HUNT_COIN	17.0%	3	1.1	2.81×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 400	$165 260 HUNT_COIN	24.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$123 194 HUNT_COIN	36.3%	3	3.6	0.84×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	99.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	705	703.9	1.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · CovertTrevor Lett$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$193304 HUNT_COIN100.6x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$193304 HUNT_COIN100.6x5d

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$193304 HUNT_COIN100.6x6d

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$123194 HUNT_COIN64.39x4d

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$123194 HUNT_COIN64.39x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeTrevor Lett$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeTrevor Lett$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1d

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.923.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.92	88.69%	5

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%Covert 0.4%Consumer Grade 99.0%best hit $193 (100.6x)