Mirage
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$154.57
243 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $133.70 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.54%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT_COIN | 16.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $1,667 2,625 HUNT_COIN | 31.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 20 | $526 829 HUNT_COIN | 19.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified | 11.5% | $377 594 HUNT_COIN | 32.4% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKarl Ess$155243 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $155 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.5%#eb4b4b 5.0%classified 11.5%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,236 (14.47x)