Beast

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$73.04

115 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.50%

EV $63.18 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

127.46%

223 openings, odds method

Variance

19.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 21

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

134.24%±60.39201 openings

30 days

127.46%±57.34223 openings

since tracking started

127.46%±57.34223 openings

69.5%132.5%195.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	201	134.24%±60.4	+1.5σ	odds
30d	223	127.46%±57.3	+1.4σ	odds
All	223	127.46%±57.3	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 223 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$7,292 11,484 HUNT_COIN	11.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 667	$4,721 7,435 HUNT_COIN	11.2%	2	0.3	—
Sticker \| Howling Dawnsticker · contraband	1 in 500	$1,040 1,638 HUNT_COIN	3.3%	0	0.4	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 400	$917 1,444 HUNT_COIN	3.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 200	$764 1,203 HUNT_COIN	6.0%	2	1.1	1.79×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$500 787 HUNT_COIN	7.9%	2	2.2	0.90×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$428 674 HUNT_COIN	16.9%	8	5.6	1.43×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 36	$396 623 HUNT_COIN	17.5%	5	6.2	0.80×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$76.39 120 HUNT_COIN	6.0%	8	11.2	0.72×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$50.69 79.84 HUNT_COIN	4.0%	19	11.2	1.70×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$33.82 53.27 HUNT_COIN	4.0%	18	16.7	1.08×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$24.29 38.26 HUNT_COIN	2.9%	27	16.7	1.61×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	12.5%	$12.91 20.34 HUNT_COIN	2.6%	17	27.9	0.61×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	15.0%	$4.58 7.22 HUNT_COIN	1.1%	31	33.4	0.93×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	20.0%	$3.33 5.25 HUNT_COIN	1.1%	49	44.6	1.10×
Sticker \| Baby Howlsticker · high	20.0%	$0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	35	44.6	0.78×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$4,7217,435 HUNT_COIN64.63x2d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$4,7217,435 HUNT_COIN64.63x4d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$7641,203 HUNT_COIN10.46x2d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epicHobbi3ten$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$7641,203 HUNT_COIN10.46x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$24.2938.26 HUNT_COIN0.33x2d

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$3.335.25 HUNT_COIN0.05x2d

Sticker | Baby Howlsticker · highHobbi3ten$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$0.811.28 HUNT_COIN0.01x2d

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$3.335.25 HUNT_COIN0.05x2d

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$24.2938.26 HUNT_COIN0.33x2d

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$50.6979.84 HUNT_COIN0.69x2d

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHobbi3ten$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$3.335.25 HUNT_COIN0.05x2d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$7641,203 HUNT_COIN10.46x2d

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified$73.04115 HUNT_COIN$33.8253.27 HUNT_COIN0.46x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$73.04	86.50%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 45.4%contraband 0.4%classified 12.8%epic 0.5%restricted 1.0%extraordinary 2.5%Classified 5.0%#d32ce6 12.5%high 20.0%best hit $4,721 (64.63x)