OG Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$253.83
400 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $219.56 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.40%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 400 | $10.1K 15,944 HUNT_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 80 | $2,778 4,375 HUNT_COIN | 15.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $1,250 1,969 HUNT_COIN | 17.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $868 1,367 HUNT_COIN | 23.7% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.92× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $736 1,159 HUNT_COIN | 31.8% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | OG (Glitter)sticker | 20.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.73× |
| Sticker | OG (Glitter)sticker | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.73× |
| Sticker | OGsticker | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 13 | 10.4 | 1.25× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $254 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%covert 1.3%classified 9.0%restricted 9.5%other 80.0%best hit $1,250 (4.92x)