One Deag Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.66
5.77 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.45%
EV $3.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
27.31%
407 openings, odds method
Variance
105.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 400
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 407 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 407 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 400 | $693 1,091 HUNT_COIN | 54.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $171 270 HUNT_COIN | 40.6% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.66× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $0.44 0.7 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 44 | 36.6 | 1.20× |
| Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $0.22 0.34 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 40 | 40.7 | 0.98× |
| Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $0.22 0.34 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 49 | 40.7 | 1.20× |
| Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.17 0.27 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 54 | 61.0 | 0.88× |
| Desert Eagle | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 92 | 101.8 | 0.90× |
| Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 30.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 126 | 122.1 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.220.34 HUNT_COIN0.06x
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.220.34 HUNT_COIN0.06x
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.440.7 HUNT_COIN0.12x
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffPOSK$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.170.27 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.220.34 HUNT_COIN0.06x
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.220.34 HUNT_COIN0.06x
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$3.665.77 HUNT_COIN$0.440.7 HUNT_COIN0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.45%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.66 | 86.45% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.3%covert 0.8%restricted 9.0%blue 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%#4b69ff 45.0%industrial 25.0%best hit —