Overtime
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$497.78
784 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $430.58 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
120.13%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 12.0% | $2,623 4,131 HUNT_COIN | 73.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 12.0% | $964 1,518 HUNT_COIN | 26.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Easy Peasysticker · #4b69ff | 12.0% | $0.48 0.76 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Ancient Maraudersticker · High Grade | 12.0% | $0.23 0.37 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Clown Wigsticker · #4b69ff | 12.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Noodlessticker · Rare | 12.5% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Sticker | Huajisticker · high | 12.5% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter)sticker | 15.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$498784 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN1.94x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$498784 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN1.94x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $498 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 12.0%covert 12.0%#4b69ff 24.0%High Grade 12.0%Rare 12.5%high 12.5%other 15.0%best hit $2,623 (5.27x)