25% MAX WIN
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.30
31.98 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.67%
EV $18.00 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.53%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
65.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$20.3031.98 HUNT_COIN$1.772.78 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted$20.3031.98 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommonson$20.3031.98 HUNT_COIN$1.772.78 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted$20.3031.98 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted$20.3031.98 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted$20.3031.98 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restrictedson$20.3031.98 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.30 | 88.67% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%epic 0.0%covert 12.1%classified 0.2%covert knife 0.2%red 5.0%Classified 7.5%restricted 40.0%Uncommon 35.0%best hit —