P90 Warrior

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.52

5.54 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.42%

EV $3.04 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

125.63%

223 openings, odds method

Variance

10.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

135.78%±44.41199 openings

30 days

125.63%±41.95223 openings

since tracking started

125.63%±41.95223 openings

-0.5%123.3%247.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	65.43%±180.9	—	odds
7d	199	135.78%±44.4	+2.2σ	odds
30d	223	125.63%±42.0	+1.8σ	odds
All	223	125.63%±42.0	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 223 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$411 647 HUNT_COIN	6.8%	1	0.1	—
Souvenir P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 667	$88.90 140 HUNT_COIN	4.4%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$54.44 85.75 HUNT_COIN	3.6%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$38.15 60.09 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	2	1.3	1.49×
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$32.01 50.41 HUNT_COIN	10.5%	1	2.2	0.45×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$13.66 21.52 HUNT_COIN	9.0%	7	4.5	1.57×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 40	$10.51 16.56 HUNT_COIN	8.6%	1	5.6	0.18×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$7.99 12.59 HUNT_COIN	9.2%	9	7.8	1.15×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 20	$6.11 9.63 HUNT_COIN	10.1%	12	11.2	1.08×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 13	$5.54 8.73 HUNT_COIN	13.7%	18	16.7	1.08×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 13	$4.69 7.38 HUNT_COIN	11.6%	17	16.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.43 0.68 HUNT_COIN	1.4%	17	22.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	15.0%	$0.31 0.49 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	44	33.4	1.32×
P90 \| Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare	15.0%	$0.23 0.37 HUNT_COIN	1.2%	32	33.4	0.96×
Souvenir P90 \| Scorched (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common	15.0%	$0.15 0.24 HUNT_COIN	0.8%	40	33.4	1.20×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	15.0%	$0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	22	33.4	0.66×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$411647 HUNT_COIN116.7x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN0.07x16h

StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$6.119.63 HUNT_COIN1.74x16h

StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$0.430.68 HUNT_COIN0.12x16h

Souvenir P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.04x16h

StatTrak™ P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$0.310.49 HUNT_COIN0.09x16h

P90 | Freight (Factory New)weapon · RareHeroOfAll$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN0.07x16h

P90 | Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$13.6621.52 HUNT_COIN3.88x22h

P90 | Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN0.07x22h

P90 | Attack Vector (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$5.548.73 HUNT_COIN1.58x22h

Souvenir P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$3.525.54 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.04x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.42%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$3.52	86.42%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 3.6%classified 2.9%covert 1.6%violet 7.0%uncommon 15.0%mil spec 10.0%milspec 15.0%Rare 15.0%Common 15.0%#5e98d9 15.0%best hit $411 (116.7x)