Pain
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$307.26
484 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $265.78 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.95%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $2,736 4,309 HUNT_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT_COIN | 20.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $708 1,116 HUNT_COIN | 20.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $368 580 HUNT_COIN | 11.1% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 13.0% | $271 427 HUNT_COIN | 13.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 15.0% | $243 383 HUNT_COIN | 13.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $54.44 85.75 HUNT_COIN | 3.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 35.0% | $19.37 30.51 HUNT_COIN | 2.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$307484 HUNT_COIN$368580 HUNT_COIN1.20x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classifieddwiauhdas$307484 HUNT_COIN$19.3730.51 HUNT_COIN0.06x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$307484 HUNT_COIN$19.3730.51 HUNT_COIN0.06x
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$307484 HUNT_COIN$368580 HUNT_COIN1.20x
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertHobbi3ten$307484 HUNT_COIN$368580 HUNT_COIN1.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $307 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 37.0%extraordinary 13.0%classified 15.0%Classified 35.0%best hit —