Pandora Box

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.45

40.08 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.48%

EV $22.01 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.34%

1,564 openings, odds method

Variance

21.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.45%±52.60302 openings

7 days

85.35%±24.991,338 openings

30 days

81.34%±23.111,564 openings

since tracking started

81.34%±23.111,564 openings

36.0%89.3%142.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	302	89.45%±52.6	+0.1σ	odds
7d	1,338	85.35%±25.0	−0.1σ	odds
30d	1,564	81.34%±23.1	−0.4σ	odds
All	1,564	81.34%±23.1	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,564 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$3,653 5,753 HUNT_COIN	8.3%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$1,361 2,144 HUNT_COIN	9.3%	5	2.3	2.13×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$957 1,507 HUNT_COIN	10.9%	3	3.9	0.77×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$367 577 HUNT_COIN	5.8%	4	5.5	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$309 486 HUNT_COIN	7.0%	5	7.8	0.64×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 182	$278 437 HUNT_COIN	6.9%	4	8.6	0.47×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 154	$222 350 HUNT_COIN	6.6%	14	10.2	1.38×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$183 287 HUNT_COIN	6.6%	13	12.5	1.04×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$148 233 HUNT_COIN	6.7%	19	15.6	1.21×
Sticker \| London Conspiracy (Holo)sticker	1 in 83	$121 191 HUNT_COIN	6.6%	18	18.8	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$114 180 HUNT_COIN	10.4%	27	31.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$92.64 146 HUNT_COIN	10.5%	38	39.1	0.97×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	20.0%	$2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN	1.9%	312	312.8	1.00×
Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	20.0%	$2.05 3.23 HUNT_COIN	1.9%	314	312.8	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	25.0%	$0.36 0.57 HUNT_COIN	0.4%	389	391.0	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	25.0%	$0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	399	391.0	1.02×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$1,3612,144 HUNT_COIN53.49x1h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$1,3612,144 HUNT_COIN53.49x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$1,3612,144 HUNT_COIN53.49x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$1,3612,144 HUNT_COIN53.49x3d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$9571,507 HUNT_COIN37.59x1h

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$9571,507 HUNT_COIN37.59x2d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$9571,507 HUNT_COIN37.59x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.01x5m

Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$2.053.23 HUNT_COIN0.08x5m

★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covertHobbi3ten$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$222350 HUNT_COIN8.73x5m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$0.360.57 HUNT_COIN0.01x7m

★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$222350 HUNT_COIN8.73x7m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.01x7m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffHobbi3ten$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$0.360.57 HUNT_COIN0.01x7m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$0.360.57 HUNT_COIN0.01x9m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$25.4540.08 HUNT_COIN$2.103.31 HUNT_COIN0.08x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$25.45	86.48%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.4%covert knife 2.5%covert 2.9%classified 0.6%other 1.2%mil spec 2.5%pink 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%#8847ff 25.0%blue 25.0%best hit $1,361 (53.49x)