PayDay
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.31
68.22 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $37.47 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.26%
358 openings, odds method
Variance
18.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 358 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT_COIN | 11.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 333 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.86× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $971 1,529 HUNT_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $625 984 HUNT_COIN | 25.0% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare | 1 in 50 | $430 678 HUNT_COIN | 23.0% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× |
| Sticker | CT in Bananasticker · Rare | 30.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 125 | 107.4 | 1.16× |
| Sticker | Bananasticker · #4b69ff | 30.0% | $0.78 1.23 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 96 | 107.4 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | Fast Bananasticker · high | 35.0% | $0.55 0.87 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 125 | 125.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertSparven$43.3168.22 HUNT_COIN$625984 HUNT_COIN14.43x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.31 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.7%restricted 0.3%covert knife 1.0%rare 2.0%Rare 30.0%#4b69ff 30.0%high 35.0%best hit $1,542 (35.59x)