Protector

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$29.02
45.7 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.49%
EV $25.10 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.58%
181 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
32 openings · below min
7 days
66.08%±33.99108 openings
30 days
71.58%±26.26181 openings
since tracking started
71.58%±26.26181 openings
31.5%96.5%161.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3298.17%±62.4—odds
7d10866.08%±34.0−1.2σodds
30d18171.58%±26.3−1.1σodds
All18171.58%±26.3−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$242 381 HUNT_COIN9.6%21.81.10×
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 100$193 304 HUNT_COIN7.7%11.80.55×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 91$182 286 HUNT_COIN8.0%12.00.50×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 87$179 282 HUNT_COIN8.2%12.10.48×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic1 in 67$164 258 HUNT_COIN9.8%32.71.10×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 57$146 230 HUNT_COIN10.2%63.21.89×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 50$115 181 HUNT_COIN9.2%13.60.28×
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 44$96.86 153 HUNT_COIN8.7%54.11.23×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 40$83.05 131 HUNT_COIN8.3%24.50.44×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 36$66.67 105 HUNT_COIN7.3%25.00.40×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 29$47.23 74.38 HUNT_COIN6.6%26.30.32×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 22$34.97 55.07 HUNT_COIN6.3%108.11.23×
Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade75.0%$0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN0.3%145135.81.07×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$83.05131 HUNT_COIN2.86x
Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High GradeSparven$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN0.00x
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$242381 HUNT_COIN8.33x
Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$0.100.15 HUNT_COIN0.00x
M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified$29.0245.7 HUNT_COIN$34.9755.07 HUNT_COIN1.21x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$29.0286.49%13
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.8%red 1.0%classified 7.3%pink 1.1%epic 1.5%Classified 5.5%mil spec 2.3%Covert 2.5%High Grade 75.0%best hit —