Redline
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.52
24.45 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.49%
EV $13.43 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.67%
675 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.49% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.29% – 132.05%, 675 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 675 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $193 304 HUNT_COIN | 71.9% | 49 | 33.8 | 1.45× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $70.97 112 HUNT_COIN | 26.4% | 28 | 33.8 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Red Shark Shootersticker · high | 45.0% | $0.26 0.41 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 282 | 303.8 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Red Cyclawpssticker · Rare | 45.0% | $0.24 0.38 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 316 | 303.8 | 1.04× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.52 | 86.49% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%high 45.0%Rare 45.0%best hit —