Sandbag Demon

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.17

1.84 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.32%

EV $1.01 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.39%

964 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

51 openings · below min

7 days

84.79%±12.41759 openings

30 days

80.39%±11.02964 openings

since tracking started

80.39%±11.02964 openings

52.5%101.3%150.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	51	101.21%±47.9	—	odds
7d	759	84.79%±12.4	−0.2σ	odds
30d	964	80.39%±11.0	−1.1σ	odds
All	964	80.39%±11.0	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 964 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$9.52 15 HUNT_COIN	9.4%	10	9.6	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 80	$8.19 12.9 HUNT_COIN	10.2%	7	12.1	0.58×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 67	$6.41 10.09 HUNT_COIN	9.5%	13	14.5	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 57	$6.19 9.75 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	18	16.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 40	$4.69 7.38 HUNT_COIN	11.6%	23	24.1	0.95×
MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 20	$3.86 6.08 HUNT_COIN	19.1%	41	48.2	0.85×
SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 14	$3.46 5.45 HUNT_COIN	24.0%	69	67.5	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	10.0%	$0.25 0.4 HUNT_COIN	2.5%	103	96.4	1.07×
Galil AR \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	15.0%	$0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN	1.7%	138	144.6	0.95×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	15.0%	$0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN	0.4%	162	144.6	1.12×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	189	192.8	0.98×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	191	192.8	0.99×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.02x40m

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x40m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.02x40m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.250.4 HUNT_COIN0.22x40m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerkai$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.02x40m

M4A4 | Tornado (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$6.4110.09 HUNT_COIN5.48x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.10x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$1.171.84 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.02x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.17	86.32%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%industrial 2.8%#8847ff 1.8%Mil Spec 2.5%Common 5.0%Consumer Grade 7.0%milspec 25.0%consumer 55.0%best hit —