Statty

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$262.83

414 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.50%

EV $227.34 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

70.87%

40 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

40 openings · below min

30 days

40 openings · below min

since tracking started

40 openings · below min

30.0%71.0%112.0%

Small sample. 40 openings and 6.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	40	70.87%±40.3	—	odds
30d	40	70.87%±40.3	—	odds
All	40	70.87%±40.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 100	$2,203 3,470 HUNT_COIN	9.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 80	$1,852 2,917 HUNT_COIN	10.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$964 1,518 HUNT_COIN	6.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$644 1,015 HUNT_COIN	5.7%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$576 908 HUNT_COIN	5.1%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$540 850 HUNT_COIN	5.9%	2	1.0	2.00×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$514 809 HUNT_COIN	6.8%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$443 698 HUNT_COIN	7.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 24	$422 664 HUNT_COIN	7.9%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$362 571 HUNT_COIN	8.0%	5	2.0	2.50×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 17	$285 448 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	4	2.4	1.67×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$271 427 HUNT_COIN	8.9%	1	3.0	0.33×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	15.0%	$39.93 62.89 HUNT_COIN	2.6%	4	6.0	0.67×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	15.0%	$39.58 62.34 HUNT_COIN	2.6%	5	6.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	15.0%	$38.33 60.37 HUNT_COIN	2.5%	9	6.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$36.88 58.08 HUNT_COIN	2.4%	6	6.0	1.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.