M4 Dreamer

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.93

10.92 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.44%

EV $6.06 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

121.89%

29 openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

29 openings · below min

since tracking started

29 openings · below min

34.0%124.7%215.5%

Small sample. 29 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	28	126.20%±88.7	—	odds
30d	29	121.89%±87.1	—	odds
All	29	121.89%±87.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$76.74 121 HUNT_COIN	19.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$70.55 111 HUNT_COIN	17.5%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN	13.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 67	$47.23 74.38 HUNT_COIN	11.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$43.05 67.81 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$36.88 58.08 HUNT_COIN	9.1%	2	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 67	$30.15 47.48 HUNT_COIN	7.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$19.35 30.47 HUNT_COIN	4.8%	2	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$13.18 20.76 HUNT_COIN	3.3%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 67	$8.06 12.7 HUNT_COIN	2.0%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade	85.0%	$0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN	1.1%	22	24.6	0.89×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$6.9310.92 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.01x2d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.9310.92 HUNT_COIN$36.8858.08 HUNT_COIN5.32x2d

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$6.9310.92 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.01x2d

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial GradeMacieja$6.9310.92 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.01x2d

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$6.9310.92 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.01x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTerracidre$6.9310.92 HUNT_COIN$19.3530.47 HUNT_COIN2.79x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.44%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$6.93	87.44%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.5%Classified 1.5%classified 1.5%mil spec 1.5%pink 1.5%restricted 3.0%Restricted 1.5%Industrial Grade 85.0%best hit —