Stayin Alive
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.70
7.41 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.40%
EV $4.07 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.63%
279 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 279 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $39.86 62.78 HUNT_COIN | 14.7% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.67× |
| MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $17.21 27.11 HUNT_COIN | 21.2% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.79× |
| MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 13 | $8.46 13.33 HUNT_COIN | 15.6% | 21 | 20.9 | 1.00× |
| SG 553 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial | 1 in 13 | $6.67 10.51 HUNT_COIN | 13.1% | 26 | 22.3 | 1.16× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 13.0% | $4.50 7.09 HUNT_COIN | 14.4% | 53 | 36.3 | 1.46× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $4.30 6.78 HUNT_COIN | 15.9% | 40 | 41.9 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Zombie Loversticker · Sticker | 15.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT_COIN | 3.1% | 38 | 41.9 | 0.91× |
| Sticker | Chicken Loversticker · high | 35.0% | $0.23 0.37 HUNT_COIN | 2.0% | 83 | 97.6 | 0.85× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$4.707.41 HUNT_COIN$4.306.78 HUNT_COIN0.91x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.70 | 86.40% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.5%Legendary 5.0%#8847ff 7.5%Industrial 8.0%Mil Spec Grade 13.0%Classified 15.0%Sticker 15.0%high 35.0%best hit —