Zero To Hero
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$467.41
736 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $404.31 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
173.46%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 286 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 87 | $4,333 6,825 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $4,236 6,672 HUNT_COIN | 26.2% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $2,597 4,091 HUNT_COIN | 32.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 17 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT_COIN | 22.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| Sticker | Fight like a Girlsticker · Rare | 20.0% | $0.86 1.36 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| Sticker | Kawaii Killer Terroriststicker · Rare | 25.0% | $0.81 1.27 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Kawaii Killer CTsticker · Rare | 40.0% | $0.81 1.27 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$467736 HUNT_COIN$2,5974,091 HUNT_COIN5.56x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$467736 HUNT_COIN$2,5974,091 HUNT_COIN5.56x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$467736 HUNT_COIN$2,5974,091 HUNT_COIN5.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $467 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%Rare 85.0%best hit $4,236 (9.06x)