Zergy Boy
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$210.44
331 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $182.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
153.40%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 13 | $693 1,091 HUNT_COIN | 28.5% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $472 744 HUNT_COIN | 25.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $404 636 HUNT_COIN | 22.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 12.5% | $338 533 HUNT_COIN | 23.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.60× |
| MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.53 0.84 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| MP9 | Nexus (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $0.33 0.52 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Bioleak (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon | 15.0% | $0.26 0.41 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| MP9 | Pine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 15.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$210331 HUNT_COIN$338533 HUNT_COIN1.61x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $210 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 7.5%covert 32.5%mil spec 15.0%Rare 15.0%other 15.0%#b0c3d9 15.0%best hit $693 (3.29x)