Source

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$75.52

119 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.50%

EV $65.32 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.46%

92 openings, odds method

Variance

11.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

74 openings · below min

30 days

92 openings · below min

since tracking started

92 openings · below min

-0.5%77.5%155.5%

Small sample. 92 openings and 6.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	74	76.31%±78.7	—	odds
30d	92	76.46%±70.5	—	odds
All	92	76.46%±70.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$9,540 15,025 HUNT_COIN	7.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 667	$2,250 3,544 HUNT_COIN	5.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$1,389 2,187 HUNT_COIN	4.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 167	$799 1,258 HUNT_COIN	7.3%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$679 1,069 HUNT_COIN	10.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$346 545 HUNT_COIN	10.6%	5	1.8	2.72×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$211 333 HUNT_COIN	8.1%	1	2.3	0.43×
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$180 283 HUNT_COIN	9.6%	2	3.2	0.62×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$132 208 HUNT_COIN	10.1%	6	4.6	1.30×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$111 175 HUNT_COIN	12.7%	6	6.9	0.87×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$70.83 112 HUNT_COIN	8.1%	7	6.9	1.01×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$7.98 12.57 HUNT_COIN	1.2%	12	9.2	1.30×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	15.0%	$7.37 11.6 HUNT_COIN	1.7%	6	13.8	0.43×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Pistols	15.0%	$7.09 11.16 HUNT_COIN	1.6%	19	13.8	1.38×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	15.0%	$4.15 6.54 HUNT_COIN	1.0%	19	13.8	1.38×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	15.0%	$3.40 5.36 HUNT_COIN	0.8%	8	13.8	0.58×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeHobbi3ten$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$6791,069 HUNT_COIN8.99x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$4.156.54 HUNT_COIN0.05x1d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$132208 HUNT_COIN1.75x1d

USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$70.83112 HUNT_COIN0.94x1d

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueHobbi3ten$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$4.156.54 HUNT_COIN0.05x1d

USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$70.83112 HUNT_COIN0.94x1d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$346545 HUNT_COIN4.58x1d

USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$70.83112 HUNT_COIN0.94x1d

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeHobbi3ten$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$3.405.36 HUNT_COIN0.05x1d

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$3.405.36 HUNT_COIN0.05x1d

USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$75.52119 HUNT_COIN$7.9812.57 HUNT_COIN0.11x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$75.52	86.50%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.6%Covert 0.1%covert knife 1.2%extraordinary 0.6%classified 7.5%mil spec 13.5%industrial 7.5%milspec 15.0%Pistols 15.0%blue 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%best hit $679 (8.99x)