Winter Is Coming
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$158.15
249 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $136.80 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.09%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$158249 HUNT_COIN$1,2491,967 HUNT_COIN7.89x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$158249 HUNT_COIN$6551,032 HUNT_COIN4.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $158 | 86.50% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 22.3%epic 2.8%other 50.0%remarkable 25.0%best hit $1,249 (7.89x)