Weeb

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.57

15.07 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.48%

EV $8.27 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

65.82%

228 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

64.12%±20.20224 openings

30 days

65.82%±20.03228 openings

since tracking started

65.82%±20.03228 openings

9.5%62.0%114.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (45.80% – 85.85%, 228 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	62.08%±51.9	—	odds
7d	224	64.12%±20.2	−2.2σ	odds
30d	228	65.82%±20.0	−2.0σ	odds
All	228	65.82%±20.0	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$76.74 121 HUNT_COIN	9.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 80	$54.17 85.32 HUNT_COIN	8.2%	1	2.9	0.35×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$47.71 75.15 HUNT_COIN	8.6%	4	3.4	1.17×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 57	$40.12 63.19 HUNT_COIN	8.5%	6	4.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$35.90 56.55 HUNT_COIN	10.8%	5	5.7	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$32.64 51.41 HUNT_COIN	19.7%	7	11.4	0.61×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14	$24.01 37.81 HUNT_COIN	20.3%	11	16.0	0.69×
Sticker \| Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	10.0%	$4.06 6.4 HUNT_COIN	4.9%	20	22.8	0.88×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	15.0%	$1.65 2.6 HUNT_COIN	3.0%	34	34.2	0.99×
Sticker \| Cheongsamsticker · Rare	15.0%	$1.30 2.05 HUNT_COIN	2.4%	39	34.2	1.14×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.97 1.53 HUNT_COIN	2.3%	55	45.6	1.21×
Sticker \| Kawaii Eyes (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff	20.0%	$0.79 1.25 HUNT_COIN	1.9%	46	45.6	1.01×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ffSr.Calavera$9.5715.07 HUNT_COIN$4.066.4 HUNT_COIN0.42x1h

Sticker | Kawaii Eyes (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff$9.5715.07 HUNT_COIN$0.791.25 HUNT_COIN0.08x1h

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$9.5715.07 HUNT_COIN$32.6451.41 HUNT_COIN3.41x1h

Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffDiabloPhD$9.5715.07 HUNT_COIN$1.652.6 HUNT_COIN0.17x1h

Sticker | Cheongsamsticker · RareLEZAS$9.5715.07 HUNT_COIN$1.302.05 HUNT_COIN0.14x10h

Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$9.5715.07 HUNT_COIN$4.066.4 HUNT_COIN0.42x10h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$9.5715.07 HUNT_COIN$0.971.53 HUNT_COIN0.10x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$9.57	86.48%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.5%Classified 1.3%classified 13.8%restricted 22.5%#8847ff 45.0%Rare 15.0%best hit —