Best 10% Overall
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.27
0.43 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.77%
EV $0.24 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.48%
1,533 openings, odds method
Variance
13.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,533 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 10,000 | $65.97 104 HUNT_COIN | 2.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 1 in 25 | $3.73 5.88 HUNT_COIN | 62.9% | 68 | 61.2 | 1.11× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $1.50 2.37 HUNT_COIN | 19.1% | 51 | 46.0 | 1.11× |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 1 in 33 | $0.83 1.3 HUNT_COIN | 10.5% | 28 | 46.0 | 0.61× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 4.8% | 1,385 | 1379.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$3.735.88 HUNT_COIN13.67x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeKINGGING$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$1.502.37 HUNT_COIN5.51x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.27 | 86.77% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 0.0%milspec 4.0%mil spec 3.0%violet 3.0%Consumer Grade 90.0%best hit $65.97 (241.7x)