Short Cuts
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.19
9.75 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.45%
EV $5.35 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.96%
753 openings, odds method
Variance
14.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 753 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 500 | $243 383 HUNT_COIN | 9.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 333 | $191 301 HUNT_COIN | 10.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $142 224 HUNT_COIN | 26.6% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 19.5% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN | 20.5% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| Sticker | Small Arms (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 30.0% | $1.14 1.8 HUNT_COIN | 6.4% | 229 | 225.9 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High Grade | 30.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 4.6% | 219 | 225.9 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Small Armssticker · #4B69FF | 35.0% | $0.41 0.64 HUNT_COIN | 2.7% | 267 | 263.6 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.45%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.19 | 86.45% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.2%Covert 0.3%covert 4.5%Mythical 30.0%High Grade 30.0%#4B69FF 35.0%best hit —