Shockwave
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$287.70
453 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $248.86 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
120.75%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 12.5% | $557 877 HUNT_COIN | 28.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 12.5% | $451 711 HUNT_COIN | 22.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 12.5% | $358 565 HUNT_COIN | 18.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 12.5% | $312 492 HUNT_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 12.5% | $158 249 HUNT_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 12.5% | $85.97 135 HUNT_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 12.5% | $52.50 82.69 HUNT_COIN | 2.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $15.28 24.07 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$288453 HUNT_COIN$52.5082.69 HUNT_COIN0.18x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$288453 HUNT_COIN$15.2824.07 HUNT_COIN0.05x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$288453 HUNT_COIN$451711 HUNT_COIN1.57x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epicHobbi3ten$288453 HUNT_COIN$451711 HUNT_COIN1.57x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $288 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%epic 12.5%classified 25.0%restricted 12.5%best hit $557 (1.94x)