Scar Pattern

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$155.83

245 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.50%

EV $134.80 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.77%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

48 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

24.5%73.0%121.5%

Small sample. 48 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	48	72.77%±47.8	—	odds
30d	48	72.77%±47.8	—	odds
All	48	72.77%±47.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 100	$1,342 2,114 HUNT_COIN	10.0%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 80	$1,069 1,684 HUNT_COIN	9.9%	0	0.6	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 67	$806 1,269 HUNT_COIN	9.0%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 57	$715 1,127 HUNT_COIN	9.3%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 40	$639 1,006 HUNT_COIN	11.8%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$505 795 HUNT_COIN	18.7%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14	$438 690 HUNT_COIN	22.7%	4	3.4	1.19×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	40.0%	$22.46 35.38 HUNT_COIN	6.7%	17	19.2	0.89×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	40.0%	$6.36 10.02 HUNT_COIN	1.9%	22	19.2	1.15×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.