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Rusty Loot

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$28.53
44.94 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.49%
EV $24.68 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.98%
196 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
28 openings · below min
7 days
108.27%±45.31110 openings
30 days
74.98%±33.94196 openings
since tracking started
74.98%±33.94196 openings
40.5%136.8%233.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h28142.33%±89.8—odds
7d110108.27%±45.3+0.9σodds
30d19674.98%±33.9−0.7σodds
All19674.98%±33.9−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 1,000$972 1,531 HUNT_COIN3.9%10.2—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 400$645 1,016 HUNT_COIN6.5%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 200$424 668 HUNT_COIN8.6%11.0—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 133$301 474 HUNT_COIN9.1%11.50.68×
★ Nomad Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal1 in 100$226 357 HUNT_COIN9.2%32.01.53×
★ Flip Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 83$192 303 HUNT_COIN9.4%02.40.00×
★ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 45$113 179 HUNT_COIN10.1%24.30.46×
★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 40$89.47 141 HUNT_COIN9.1%64.91.22×
★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 36$88.90 140 HUNT_COIN9.9%15.40.19×
PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 29$38.90 61.26 HUNT_COIN5.5%46.90.58×
Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon10.3%$34.15 53.79 HUNT_COIN14.2%1720.10.85×
Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade25.0%$2.46 3.88 HUNT_COIN2.5%5049.01.02×
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial25.0%$1.37 2.16 HUNT_COIN1.4%5249.01.06×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec25.0%$0.58 0.92 HUNT_COIN0.6%5849.01.18×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$9721,531 HUNT_COIN34.07x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$9721,531 HUNT_COIN34.07x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$89.47141 HUNT_COIN3.14x
Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$2.463.88 HUNT_COIN0.09x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial GradeSparven$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$2.463.88 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$2.463.88 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$2.463.88 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$2.463.88 HUNT_COIN0.09x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$28.5344.94 HUNT_COIN$1.372.16 HUNT_COIN0.05x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$28.5386.49%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.1%covert knife 1.5%Immortal 1.0%covert 6.5%gold 2.2%mil spec 3.5%Uncommon 10.3%Industrial Grade 25.0%industrial 25.0%milspec 25.0%best hit $972 (34.07x)