Red Flag
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$96.42
152 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $83.40 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.33%
108 openings, odds method
Variance
16.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 108 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 500 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT_COIN | 11.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $2,875 4,528 HUNT_COIN | 10.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $1,944 3,062 HUNT_COIN | 23.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $1,417 2,231 HUNT_COIN | 25.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $957 1,507 HUNT_COIN | 22.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo)sticker | 30.0% | $8.53 13.44 HUNT_COIN | 3.1% | 71 | 32.4 | 2.19× |
| Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo)sticker | 30.0% | $6.11 9.63 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 71 | 32.4 | 2.19× |
| Sticker | Gambit Gamingsticker | 35.0% | $3.19 5.03 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 33 | 37.8 | 0.87× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$96.42152 HUNT_COIN$1,9443,062 HUNT_COIN20.16x
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryBigfoot$96.42152 HUNT_COIN$9571,507 HUNT_COIN9.92x
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$96.42152 HUNT_COIN$9571,507 HUNT_COIN9.92x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $96.42 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.2%extraordinary 3.3%covert 1.5%other 95.0%best hit $4,721 (48.96x)