That Simple
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.44
32.2 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.49%
EV $17.68 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.76%
950 openings, odds method
Variance
118.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 950 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 950 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT_COIN | 20.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $3,305 5,206 HUNT_COIN | 18.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $2,028 3,194 HUNT_COIN | 17.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $964 1,518 HUNT_COIN | 16.4% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× |
| AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $903 1,422 HUNT_COIN | 20.4% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× |
| Sticker | Hello AWP (Gold)sticker · restricted | 19.0% | $3.19 5.03 HUNT_COIN | 3.4% | 179 | 180.5 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Awp Countrysticker · High Grade | 40.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 1.8% | 362 | 380.0 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | BukAWPsticker · #4b69ff | 40.0% | $0.64 1.01 HUNT_COIN | 1.5% | 401 | 380.0 | 1.06× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covertHobbi3ten$20.4432.2 HUNT_COIN$3,3055,206 HUNT_COIN161.7x
AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertSparven$20.4432.2 HUNT_COIN$2,0283,194 HUNT_COIN99.18x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertHobbi3ten$20.4432.2 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN47.14x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$20.4432.2 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN47.14x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$20.4432.2 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN47.14x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$20.4432.2 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN47.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.44 | 86.49% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%restricted 19.0%High Grade 40.0%#4b69ff 40.0%best hit $3,305 (161.7x)