20% Never Lose
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.19
1.87 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.23%
EV $1.04 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.82%
136 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 136 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $15.35 24.18 HUNT_COIN | 14.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 67 | $6.85 10.79 HUNT_COIN | 9.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $5.40 8.51 HUNT_COIN | 26.1% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $5.18 8.16 HUNT_COIN | 25.0% | 11 | 6.8 | 1.62× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $4.79 7.55 HUNT_COIN | 23.1% | 14 | 6.8 | 2.06× |
| G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 82.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.0% | 105 | 112.2 | 0.94× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Gradewavxx123$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.191.87 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.23%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.19 | 87.23% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 7.5%#4b69ff 5.0%red 5.0%Consumer Grade 82.5%best hit —