GUARANTEED 10% KNIFE
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.72
15.31 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $8.49 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.21%
90 openings, odds method
Variance
11.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 90 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$9.7215.31 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN5.65x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$9.7215.31 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN5.65x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.72 | 87.38% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.6%covert knife 3.2%Knives 0.3%High Grade 90.0%best hit —