I'm at the beach
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$962.08
1,515 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $832.20 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
129.46%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $5,903 9,297 HUNT_COIN | 53.2% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 12.5% | $1,229 1,936 HUNT_COIN | 18.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| ★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 12.5% | $1,012 1,595 HUNT_COIN | 15.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 12.5% | $816 1,285 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 12.5% | $21.25 33.47 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 12.5% | $20.12 31.69 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade | 12.5% | $11.66 18.37 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common | 17.5% | $3.86 6.08 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryDameTime$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$5,9039,297 HUNT_COIN6.14x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$5,9039,297 HUNT_COIN6.14x
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$1,2291,936 HUNT_COIN1.28x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$20.1231.69 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$20.1231.69 HUNT_COIN0.02x
SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer GradeGremlin$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$11.6618.37 HUNT_COIN0.01x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$5,9039,297 HUNT_COIN6.14x
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$9621,515 HUNT_COIN$1,2291,936 HUNT_COIN1.28x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $962 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 7.5%covert 37.5%industrial 12.5%Consumer Grade 25.0%Common 17.5%best hit $5,903 (6.14x)