Green Flag
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4,026.17
6,341 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $3,482.64 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
43.05%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 10.0% | $17.4K 27,343 HUNT_COIN | 49.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 10.0% | $9,151 14,413 HUNT_COIN | 26.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 10.0% | $6,389 10,062 HUNT_COIN | 18.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $833 1,312 HUNT_COIN | 3.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $526 829 HUNT_COIN | 1.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6 | 12.5% | $103 162 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $61.11 96.25 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 17.5% | $3.43 5.41 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendaryGremlin$4,0266,341 HUNT_COIN$17.4K27,343 HUNT_COIN4.31x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$4,0266,341 HUNT_COIN$61.1196.25 HUNT_COIN0.02x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$4,0266,341 HUNT_COIN$61.1196.25 HUNT_COIN0.02x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendaryGremlin$4,0266,341 HUNT_COIN$17.4K27,343 HUNT_COIN4.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4,026 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 20.0%epic 10.0%restricted 25.0%#d32ce6 12.5%extraordinary 15.0%#4b69ff 17.5%best hit $17.4K (4.31x)