Taste of Purple
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,579.54
4,063 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $2,231.30 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.04%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary | 12.5% | $13.5K 21,218 HUNT_COIN | 75.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $3,333 5,250 HUNT_COIN | 18.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 12.5% | $964 1,518 HUNT_COIN | 5.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 12.5% | $56.95 89.69 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.00× |
| M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink | 12.5% | $19.26 30.34 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 12.5% | $2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $1.61 2.53 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $1.37 2.16 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$13.5K21,218 HUNT_COIN5.22x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$13.5K21,218 HUNT_COIN5.22x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN0.37x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN0.37x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN0.37x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN0.37x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$13.5K21,218 HUNT_COIN5.22x
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · MythicalGremlin$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$56.9589.69 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$2,5804,063 HUNT_COIN$9641,518 HUNT_COIN0.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2,580 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 12.5%classified 12.5%covert 12.5%Mythical 12.5%pink 25.0%restricted 25.0%best hit $13.5K (5.22x)