D Lore Flip
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4,271.59
6,728 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $3,694.93 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
43.47%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 20.0% | $10.1K 15,944 HUNT_COIN | 54.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $5,555 8,749 HUNT_COIN | 45.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 50.0% | $7.58 11.94 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4,272 | 86.50% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 20.0%covert 30.0%exotic 50.0%best hit $5,555 (1.30x)