Seeing Red
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,709.77
2,693 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $1,478.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 20 | $10.3K 16,163 HUNT_COIN | 34.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo)sticker | 1 in 20 | $6,667 10,500 HUNT_COIN | 22.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | mousesports (Holo)sticker | 1 in 20 | $4,305 6,781 HUNT_COIN | 14.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo)sticker | 1 in 20 | $3,722 5,862 HUNT_COIN | 12.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $1,509 2,377 HUNT_COIN | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 12.5% | $444 700 HUNT_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 12.5% | $193 304 HUNT_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Seeing Redsticker · Rare | 45.0% | $1.11 1.75 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,710 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 5.0%other 15.0%classified 10.0%mil spec 25.0%Rare 45.0%