Hot Wallet
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,112.79
3,328 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $1,827.56 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
31.78%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $12.8K 20,125 HUNT_COIN | 17.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $11.9K 18,788 HUNT_COIN | 16.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 36 | $10.3K 16,163 HUNT_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 20 | $6,389 10,062 HUNT_COIN | 17.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $5,555 8,750 HUNT_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $4,028 6,344 HUNT_COIN | 11.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1,290 2,032 HUNT_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff | 67.3% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2,113 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.0%contraband 2.8%legendary 5.0%#4b69ff 67.3%best hit $4,028 (1.91x)