Vanilla
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$940.10
1,481 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $813.19 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.98%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 13 | $2,708 4,265 HUNT_COIN | 25.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Karambitknife · covert | 10.0% | $2,110 3,324 HUNT_COIN | 26.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| ★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert | 10.0% | $1,534 2,417 HUNT_COIN | 18.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert | 10.0% | $687 1,083 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Talon Knifeknife · covert | 12.5% | $566 891 HUNT_COIN | 8.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| ★ Bayonetknife · covert | 12.5% | $463 729 HUNT_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Flip Knifeknife · covert | 12.5% | $385 606 HUNT_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High Grade | 25.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $940 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 75.0%High Grade 25.0%best hit $2,708 (2.88x)