RED DEMON
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$42.82
67.44 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $37.42 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
57.30%
10 openings, sample method
Variance
51.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 1,000 | $7,153 11,265 HUNT_COIN | 19.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 667 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband | 1 in 400 | $1,040 1,638 HUNT_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $957 1,507 HUNT_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $362 571 HUNT_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $278 437 HUNT_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $238 375 HUNT_COIN | 12.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $130 205 HUNT_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Sticker | ESL One Cologne 2014 (Red)sticker · #d32ce6 | 1 in 33 | $106 168 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Sticker | Baby Howlsticker · high | 90.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 2.0% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 14:06 UTC | $42.82 | 87.38% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.5%extraordinary 2.5%classified 4.0%#d32ce6 3.0%high 90.0%best hit —