10% ahmed
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.23
35.02 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.36%
EV $19.42 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
111.57%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
14.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 1,000 | $2,179 3,432 HUNT_COIN | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 34 | $208 328 HUNT_COIN | 31.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWERsticker | 1 in 50 | $208 328 HUNT_COIN | 21.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 33 | $123 193 HUNT_COIN | 18.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $87.30 137 HUNT_COIN | 9.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 45.0% | $2.18 3.44 HUNT_COIN | 5.1% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | Silver (Foil)sticker · exotic | 45.0% | $1.40 2.21 HUNT_COIN | 3.3% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.62× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeKirua$22.2335.02 HUNT_COIN$123193 HUNT_COIN5.52x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$22.2335.02 HUNT_COIN$87.30137 HUNT_COIN3.93x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeTerracidre$22.2335.02 HUNT_COIN$123193 HUNT_COIN5.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.23 | 87.36% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.1%Restricted 2.9%other 2.0%covert knife 3.0%classified 2.0%milspec 45.0%exotic 45.0%best hit —