High Risk Huge Reward
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.49
8.64 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.32%
EV $4.79 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
27.09%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 1,000 | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $74.51 117 HUNT_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 67 | $51.39 80.94 HUNT_COIN | 16.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $32.43 51.08 HUNT_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $32.01 50.41 HUNT_COIN | 20.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo)sticker | 1 in 20 | $8.53 13.44 HUNT_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $4.50 7.09 HUNT_COIN | 9.4% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.92× |
| Sticker | Bananasticker · #4b69ff | 22.4% | $0.78 1.23 HUNT_COIN | 3.7% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil)sticker · common | 55.0% | $0.76 1.2 HUNT_COIN | 8.7% | 14 | 14.3 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$5.498.64 HUNT_COIN$4.507.09 HUNT_COIN0.82x
P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$5.498.64 HUNT_COIN$4.507.09 HUNT_COIN0.82x
Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil)sticker · commonJanne tough knuckles$5.498.64 HUNT_COIN$0.761.2 HUNT_COIN0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.49 | 87.32% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 0.1%classified 11.0%rare 1.5%covert 5.0%other 5.0%#4b69ff 22.4%common 55.0%best hit —