5% I like men
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.15
6.53 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.35%
EV $3.62 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.02%
494 openings, odds method
Variance
15.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 494 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $128 202 HUNT_COIN | 17.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 133 | $79.17 125 HUNT_COIN | 16.4% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $77.78 123 HUNT_COIN | 21.5% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| AWP | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 80 | $59.70 94.02 HUNT_COIN | 20.6% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 67 | $54.72 86.19 HUNT_COIN | 22.7% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× |
| Sticker | Fly Highsticker · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 48 | 49.4 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Monstersticker · High Grade | 40.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 199 | 197.6 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 225 | 222.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.15 | 87.35% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.5%restricted 0.8%covert 1.0%Legendary 2.8%#4b69ff 10.0%High Grade 40.0%other 45.0%best hit —